MEN’S TIER A
The data: Gabriel Medina — 10 events, 20 excellent heats, 78.85% heat win rate, 19.83 max heat score. Everyone else in Tier A is playing a different sport. Medina at Teahupo’o is the closest thing to a certainty in fantasy surfing. He is your mandatory pick and your power surfer.
The second lock: Italo Ferreira — 9 events, 6 excellent heats, 60.87% heat win rate. The goofy-footer from Brazil has deep Chopes pedigree and his numbers back it up. He won here in 2019 on his way to the world title. Lock him in.
Contrarian Tier A: Yago Dora just won Rio and is the hottest surfer on tour right now. His Teahupo’o career numbers (6 events, 50% heat win rate) are solid without being spectacular — but momentum is real. If you’re going away from Ferreira, Dora is the call.
Who to leave out: George Pittar — zero career events at Teahupo’o. His Gold Coast win was magnificent but this is a completely different test. Save him for Trestles.
MEN’S TIER B
The data doesn’t lie: Jack Robinson — 84.62% heat win rate, 5 excellent heats, 18.10 max score, 15.32 average heat score. That is the best Teahupo’o record of anyone in Tier B by a massive margin. He surfs this wave like he was born on the reef. He has been our sleeper pick all season — now the career stats make him the clearest pick on the entire men’s board. He is your Tier B power surfer.
The second pick: Kauli Vaast — 4 events, 3 excellent heats, 61.54% heat win rate. The young Tahitian local knows every section of this wave intimately. His 2024 win here was no fluke. He is the local knowledge play and the numbers back it up completely.
Contrarian Tier B: Griffin Colapinto — 3 excellent heats, 18.10 max score, 35.71% heat win rate. The numbers suggest he can go very deep here when he’s on. Dark horse worth a look.
Who to leave out: Filipe Toledo — 9 events, only 1 excellent heat, 31.82% heat win rate. The season stats flatter him at this wave. The career numbers don’t. Sit him out.
MEN’S TIER C
Kelly Slater. Full stop. 20 events at Teahupo’o. 46 excellent heats. 20.00 max heat score — a perfect 10. 76.47% heat win rate. The greatest Teahupo’o surfer in history is sitting in Tier C at 52 years old. He hasn’t competed this season so the algorithm has no season data to rank him on. That is the fantasy gift of the year. He is your Tier C power surfer pick and it is not a debate.
The second pick: Eimeo Czermak — the young French Polynesian event wildcard. Zero career CT stats because he’s never competed here at this level but he surfs this wave every single day of his life. Local wildcards at Teahupo’o consistently outperform expectations. Take the dart.
WOMEN’S TIER A
The career stats: Molly Picklum leads Tier A with 2 excellent heats and a 50% heat win rate across 3 events. She is your lock. Caitlin Simmers and Caroline Marks both sit at 66.67% heat win rate but with zero excellent heats — consistent but not spectacular. Gabriela Bryan’s 16.67% heat win rate is the surprise of the data — the numbers suggest this wave doesn’t suit her as well as you’d think. Lakey Peterson has a 0% heat win rate at Chopes despite 3 events.
The picks: Molly Picklum — lock. Caitlin Simmers — second pick based on heat win rate and current season form.
Contrarian: Caroline Marks — 66.67% heat win rate, goofy footer, and her backhand barrel riding has improved enormously this season. If you’re leaving out Simmers, Marks is the play.
WOMEN’S TIER B
The honest truth: most of Tier B has limited or zero career experience at Teahupo’o. Tyler Wright leads with 4 events but only a 25% heat win rate. This tier requires some faith.
The picks: Tyler Wright — most experienced, two-time world champ, surfs heavy powerful waves better than almost anyone. Alyssa Spencer — goofy footer, zero Teahupo’o career stats but her backhand barrel attack has been the revelation of 2026. Two semifinal appearances this season. Back the form.
WOMEN’S TIER C
Vahine Fierro is not a dart. 4 events, 2 excellent heats, 17.70 max score, 58.33% heat win rate. She is the most undervalued pick on the entire women’s board. This is her home wave — she grew up surfing Teahupo’o — and the numbers are the best in her tier by a country mile. Lock her in as your power surfer.
The second pick: Erin Brooks — 50% heat win rate in her only Teahupo’o appearance and a 15.16 max score. Goofy footer with serious tube ability. Worth the dart.
YOUR GLOT TEAM — TL;DR
Men’s Tier A: Medina (power surfer) + Ferreira
Men’s Tier B: Robinson (power surfer) + Vaast
Men’s Tier C: Slater + Czermak
Women’s Tier A: Picklum + Simmers
Women’s Tier B: Wright + Spencer
Women’s Tier C: Fierro (power surfer) + Brooks
The window is open. Tahiti starts August 8. Get your picks in. Good luck out there. 🤙